Keynote speakers

The following speakers have kindly agreed to give a key note in our conference:

 

Professor Gerd Gigerenzer

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    • Director, Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition – Max Planck Institute for Human Development.
    • Director, Harding Center for Risk Literacy – Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

Keynote title: Risk Literacy and Health.

Summary:

Efficient and affordable health care requires both informed patients and doctors. Yet studies show that most doctors do not understand health statistics. Health organizations and industries exploit this innumeracy to make small benefits of treatments or screenings appear big and their harms appear small. I will talk about techniques for helping doctors and patients make sense of medical evidence. Promoting risk literacy in health could save more lives than expensive screening programs and Big Data.

 

Theme: New methods/new tools/new data for risk research

 

Dr. Margôt Kuttschreuter

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    • Department of Psychology of Conflict, Risk and Safety (CRV) – University of Twente
    • Past president SRA-Europe & Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Fellow

Title: forthcoming

 

Dr. Francesco Calabrese

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    • Lead Big Data & Analytics Scientist at Vodafone

Title: forthcoming

 

Theme: Risk & resilience

 

Dr. Igor Linkov

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    • Risk & Decision Science Focus Area Lead, US Army Engineer Research & Development Center – US Army
    • Carnegie Mellon University
    • Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Fellow

Title: From Risk to Resilience: Shifting Paradigm

Summary:

Risk-based approaches have been used to assess threats and mitigate consequences associated with their impact. Risk assessment requires quantifying the risk of failure for each component of a system and associated uncertainties, with the goal of identifying each component’s contribution to the overall risk and ascertaining if one component poses substantially more risk than the others. These components become the basis of quantitative benchmarks for the system, and becomes the de facto standard for system improvements designed to buy down risk. Rapid technological evolution, combined with the unprecedented nature and extent of emerging threats defy us to enumerate all potential hazards, much less estimate reliable probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of consequences. A comprehensive approach to protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure, economy, and well-being must be risk based—not risk exclusive—and must provide a way for decision makers to make their organizational systems resilient to a range of threats within specific cost and time restraints. In contrast to the definition of risk, resilience is focused on the ability to prepare and recover quickly from threats which may be known or unknown. Resilience is a property of the system itself and can be measured without identification and assessment of threats which act on or within a system. Managing for resilience requires ensuring a system’s ability to plan and prepare for a threat, and then absorb, recover, and adapt. Coupled with a systems view that decomposes components across physical, information, cognitive, and social environments in which the system exists, is the basis of an approach to quantifying resilience with decision analytical tools and network science approaches. 

This presentation will review the history of risk assessment and management, discuss the emergence of resilience management, and the role of both constructs in managing emerging risks. Case studies in the areas of infrastructure, transportation, cybersecurity, organizational behavior, and disease epidemics management will be discussed.  Specifically, summaries of the two recent workshops on Risk and Resilience (Aspen, 2015 and Azores 2016) will be presented and the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) Guidebook on Resilience released in Davos in August 2016 will be introduced.

 

Dr. José Manuel Palma-Oliveira

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    • Faculty of Psychology, University of Lisbon
    • Past president SRA-Europe & Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Fellow

Title: forthcoming

 

Further keynotes will be announced as part of a round table including policy makers and risk experts.

Information will be added upon receiving the invitations’ acceptance confirmation.